Amid rumors that the US and Iran are discussing a 45?day pause in the war, Bitcoin and Ethereum rose in confidence during Asian trading. However, a sustained rally is unlikely without a concrete compromise. There have been many such rumors before, all of which turned out to be hollow, after which the market resumed its decline.

Moving aside from that, I'd like to draw attention to yesterday's interview with Michael Saylor, CEO of Strategy. In his view, Bitcoin has prevailed. His statement that "the global consensus is: BTC is digital capital" is an important point for understanding the nature of this digital currency. There is no longer room for cyclical speculation — the four-year cycle that long served as a guide for investors is now considered outdated. Instead, attention is shifting to fundamental forces — capital flows that will determine Bitcoin's growth trajectory.

According to Saylor, this paradigm shift opens a new era for BTC, where its value will directly correlate with inflows from both traditional and digital investments. Saylor emphasizes that banking and digital credit will become the main growth drivers. As the global economy searches for new ways to preserve and grow capital, Bitcoin, in his view, has established itself as a reliable digital asset. This transition from a speculative instrument to a fundamental store of capital is key to further adoption and integration of BTC into the global financial system.

However, despite such a confident forecast, Saylor does not ignore potential threats. He warns against "bad ideas that will lead to iatrogenic changes to the protocol." This subtle but important remark points to Bitcoin's vulnerability to incompetent or malicious actions that could undermine its decentralized nature and foundational principles. Any attempts to artificially change the protocol driven by short?term interests or misunderstanding could have catastrophic consequences, threatening all progress made. In this context, responsibility for preserving the integrity of the Bitcoin protocol falls not only on developers but on the entire community.

In the crypto community, Saylor's words are not just a forecast but a call for a thoughtful approach to Bitcoin's development and investment. It is a declaration of victory, but a victory that requires constant vigilance and commitment to core principles.

Trading recommendations

Bitcoin

Buyers are now targeting a return to $69,600, which would open a direct path to $71,400, and then to $72,500. The furthest target is the high around $74,600; overcoming that level would signal attempts to return to a bull market. In case of a drop, I expect buyers at $68,000. A return of the instrument below that area could quickly push BTC toward $66,400. The most distant target on the downside is $64,900.

Ethereum

A clear hold above $2,140 opens a direct path to $2,160. The furthest target is the high around $2,238; overcoming that level would indicate strengthening bullish sentiment and a return of buyer interest. In case of a decline, I expect buyers at $2,117. A return below that area could quickly push ETH toward $2,096. The most distant downside target is $2,037.

What's on the chart

• The red lines represent support and resistance levels, where price is expected to either pause or react sharply.
• The green line shows the 50-day moving average.
• The blue line is the 100-day moving average.
• The lime line is the 200-day moving average.

Price testing or crossing any of these moving averages often either halts movement or injects fresh momentum into the market.