empty
 
 
05.01.2026 02:56 PM
EUR/USD. Analysis and Forecast

This image is no longer relevant

Today, Monday, the EUR/USD pair is experiencing strong selling pressure, falling to near a four-week low around 1.1670. Rising geopolitical tensions are supporting the U.S. dollar, which is considered a safe-haven asset. This has helped the U.S. currency recover from its lowest levels since early October and is weighing on the EUR/USD pair.

This image is no longer relevant

However, dovish expectations regarding the U.S. Federal Reserve may limit further dollar gains. In addition, the European Central Bank has stopped cutting interest rates, which should support the single currency and the currency pair. At the moment, the pair is trading near the four-week low around 1.1690, as traders closely monitor possible U.S. actions in Venezuela, against the backdrop of several important U.S. macroeconomic releases scheduled for this week.

Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro is expected to appear before a U.S. court on Monday after being captured by U.S. forces over the weekend. U.S. President Donald Trump has warned of potential new actions against the country if Venezuelan authorities fail to cooperate with the United States on opening up their oil sector and combating drug trafficking.

It is worth noting, however, that market sentiment following the weekend events has remained largely unchanged. Major Asian indices are trading in positive territory, while European markets are showing a moderately positive open.

In the currency markets, the trend of U.S. dollar strengthening that began last week has continued. Strong U.S. data on home sales and unemployment claims have reinforced confidence in the Federal Reserve, which is maintaining a very gradual cycle of monetary policy easing.

To identify better trading opportunities today, attention should be paid to the release of the U.S. Manufacturing PMI to confirm current expectations. However, the key event of the week will be the Nonfarm Payrolls report for December, scheduled for release on Friday.

From a technical perspective, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has fallen below 50, indicating that bullish momentum is weakening. Nevertheless, as long as prices remain above the 100-day simple moving average (SMA), bulls still have a chance to regain control. The gradually rising 100-day SMA continues to support the broader trend, although a daily close below it would shift the balance in favor of the bears. Prices have found support right near the 100-day SMA, while the round 1.1700 level has now become resistance.

Below is the change in the euro's exchange rate against major currencies today. The euro has shown a notable gain against the Canadian dollar.

This image is no longer relevant

Summary
Urgency
Analytic
Irina Yanina
Start trade
Gana con los cambios en el valor de las criptomonedas con InstaForex.
Descarga MetaTrader 4 y abre tu primera operación.
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    UNIRSE AL CONCURSO
  • Depósito al azar
    ¡Haga un depósito en su cuenta de $3,000 y obtenga $10000 más!
    ¡En Enero, sorteamos $10000 dentro de la campaña Depósito afortunado!
    Obtenga la oportunidad de ganar depositando $3,000 en una cuenta de operaciones. Tras haber cumplido esta condición, se convertirá en un participante de la campaña.
    UNIRSE AL CONCURSO
  • Opere de forma inteligente, gane un dispositivo
    Recargue su cuenta con al menos $500, regístrese en el concurso y tenga la oportunidad de ganar dispositivos móviles.
    UNIRSE AL CONCURSO
  • 30% de bonificación
    Reciba un bono del 30% cada vez que recargue su cuenta
    OBTENER BONO

Recommended Stories

¿No puede hablar ahora mismo?
Ingrese su pregunta en el chat.
Widget callback