Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the British Pound

Due to low volatility, there were no tests of the levels I indicated in the second half of the day. For this reason, I ended the day without any trades.

Yesterday's moderately positive data on US consumer confidence, which rose to 97.4 (above economists' forecasts), limited the upside potential for the GBP/USD pair. However, when compared to the previous month's figures, it's clear that the recovery in US consumer confidence is slowing down, which did not lead to a strong dollar, but merely capped the pair's growth.

Today, in the first half of the day, we'll see retail sales figures from the Confederation of British Industry. These data are unlikely to provide much support for the pound, given persistent inflation in the UK. The market is probably expecting more disappointing than positive results. The CBI retail sales figures are important as they reflect retailers' views and their forecasts for consumer demand. Pessimistic expectations will reinforce the perception of a slowdown in the UK economy and could lead to further depreciation of the British pound. The overall economic and geopolitical situation will heighten the impact of the data. As a result, even if the retail readings are not as negative as expected, they are unlikely to provide significant support for the pound.

For intraday strategy, I will focus primarily on Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Scenario

Scenario #1: I plan to buy the pound today if the price reaches the entry area around 1.3465 (the green line on the chart), with a target of rising to 1.3504 (the thicker green line on the chart). Around 1.3504, I plan to exit the buys and open shorts in the opposite direction, aiming for a move of 30–35 pips back from the level. Today, you can only expect the pound to rise if the data are very strong. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just starting to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the pound today in case of two consecutive tests of the 1.3445 price while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward reversal. A rise can be expected to the opposite levels of 1.3465 and 1.3504.

Sell Scenario

Scenario #1: I plan to sell the pound today after an update and break of the 1.3445 level (red line on the chart), which will likely drive the pair down quickly. The key target for sellers is the 1.3410 level, where I plan to exit my shorts and immediately open longs in the opposite direction (targeting a 20–25 pip move back from the level). Sellers will likely be more active today. Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and is just starting to move downward from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the pound today in case of two consecutive tests of the 1.3465 price while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will cap the pair's upward potential and lead to a reversal downward. A decline to the opposite levels of 1.3445 and 1.3410 can be expected.

What's on the Chart:

Thin green line – entry price at which the instrument can be bought.

Thick green line – suggested price for taking profit or manually securing profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.

Thin red line – entry price at which the instrument can be sold.

Thick red line – suggested price for taking profit or manually securing profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.

MACD indicator: When entering the market, it is important to refer to overbought and oversold areas.

Important. Beginner forex traders should exercise extreme caution when making entry decisions. Before important fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price swings. If you decide to trade during the release of news, always use stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you don't use money management and trade large volumes. And remember: for successful trading, you need a clear trading plan, as I described above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation from moment to moment is a losing strategy for an intraday trader.