Trade Review and Tips for Trading the Japanese Yen

The price test of 147.54 occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved well below the zero line, which limited the pair's downward potential. For this reason, I did not sell the dollar.

In the second half of the day, all attention will be on U.S. consumer confidence and durable goods orders data. Weak results will lead to a larger decline in USD/JPY. Investors are anxiously awaiting the release of these key macroeconomic indicators, as they could become the catalyst that determines the pair's further dynamics.

A weak consumer confidence index would certainly be an alarming sign for the U.S. economy, pointing to reduced optimism among consumers, which inevitably translates into weaker consumer spending—the main driver of U.S. economic growth. Meanwhile, a decline in durable goods orders would reinforce concerns about slowing industrial output and investment activity. Demand for the yen will increase only if the data is very poor; otherwise, USD/JPY will continue to trade within a broader sideways channel.

In addition to these two key indicators, it is also important to account for unexpected statements from Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan officials, which could influence the pair's direction.

As for intraday strategy, I will primarily rely on Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy USD/JPY at 147.74 (green line on the chart), targeting growth toward 148.17 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 148.17, I will exit purchases and open sales in the opposite direction, aiming for a 30–35 point rebound. A rise in the pair can be expected after strong U.S. data. Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and only just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY if the price tests 147.48 twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This would limit the pair's downward potential and trigger a reversal upward. Growth toward 147.74 and 148.17 can then be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY after breaking 147.48 (red line on the chart), which will trigger a quick decline. The key target for sellers will be 147.08, where I will exit sales and immediately open purchases in the opposite direction, aiming for a 20–25 point rebound. Selling pressure will return if the U.S. data is weak. Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and only just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY if the price tests 147.74 twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This would limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a reversal downward. A decline toward 147.48 and 147.08 can then be expected.

What's on the chart:

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the instrument;
• Thick green line – estimated price for placing Take Profit or fixing profit manually, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the instrument;
• Thick red line – estimated price for placing Take Profit or fixing profit manually, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to follow overbought and oversold zones.

Important. Beginner Forex traders must be very cautious when deciding on market entries. Before the release of major fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price swings. If you decide to trade during news releases, always use stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you neglect money management and trade large volumes.

And remember: successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one outlined above. Spontaneous decisions based only on the current market situation are an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.