Global markets edge higher as dollar slips
Monday's trading session opened on an upbeat note, with global stocks moving higher while the US dollar lost ground. Investors are weighing the potential impact of a looming government shutdown, which could delay the release of crucial economic indicators, including September's jobs report.
Gold hits all-time high
As the dollar weakens and uncertainty builds, market participants are increasingly turning to safe-haven assets. Gold prices surged to a record peak, highlighting concerns over the possible fallout from a shutdown in Washington.
White House prepares for key talks
President Donald Trump is scheduled to meet congressional leaders from both parties on Monday in an effort to secure a deal on government funding. Without an agreement, the shutdown could begin as early as Wednesday — coinciding with the introduction of new US tariffs on heavy trucks, patented medicines, and other goods.
Investors remain cautiously optimistic
Despite the looming threat, analysts note that investors are not showing signs of panic. The last shutdown had only a limited and short-lived effect on equity markets, which is helping maintain confidence this time around.
Indices climb across the board
US benchmarks finished the day in positive territory: the S&P 500 rose 0.3 percent, the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.5 percent, and the Dow Jones added 0.2 percent.
Globally, the MSCI All-World Index advanced 0.4 percent. In Europe, the STOXX 600 index edged up 0.2 percent, closing September with a 1.1 percent gain — its third consecutive month of growth.
Markets eye Fed rate cuts
Traders are almost certain that the Federal Reserve will move toward easing monetary policy in October, with odds of a rate cut estimated at about 90 percent. Looking ahead to December, expectations are more moderate, with roughly 65 percent anticipating another reduction.
Shutdown impact seen as limited
Analysts at Bank of America calculated that a government shutdown would shave only 0.1 percentage point off economic growth for every week it lasts. Historically, such disruptions have had little effect on financial markets. Still, they warn that permanent job losses in the public sector could deal a heavier blow to payrolls and consumer confidence.
A busy week for central bankers
This week will be rich in policy signals. On Monday alone, at least five officials from the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank are scheduled to deliver remarks.
Currency shifts under pressure
The US dollar slipped by 0.2 percent to 97.945, weighed down by last week's strong economic data. The euro advanced 0.2 percent to 1.17255 dollars but remains in the lower half of its recent trading range between 1.1646 and 1.1918.
The yen also gained strength, with the dollar falling 0.6 percent to 148.6 yen after climbing more than 1 percent last week and rebounding from September's low near 145.50.
Gold shines at record highs
In commodities, gold once again took the spotlight. Prices surged to a historic peak of 3833.37 dollars an ounce before easing slightly to 3828.17 dollars, still marking a solid 1.8 percent gain.
Oil prices tumble as Iraqi flows return
Global crude prices dropped sharply after oil shipments from Iraq's semi-autonomous Kurdistan region to Turkey resumed for the first time in two and a half years. The restart of exports became the main driver of downward pressure on the market.
OPEC+ expected to boost supply
Analysts anticipate that during its upcoming meeting on Sunday, OPEC+ will approve another production increase of at least 137,000 barrels per day.
Brent futures fell 3.5 percent to 67.68 dollars a barrel, while US benchmark WTI slid 3.8 percent to 63.21 dollars.
European stocks edge lower
On Tuesday, European equities opened in negative territory. Energy and healthcare shares were among the biggest losers, while investors also weighed the potential fallout from a US government shutdown that could delay key economic data releases.
STOXX 600 slips but quarterly growth intact
The pan-European STOXX 600 index declined 0.2 percent to 554.7 points by early morning in London. Still, September is on track to mark the third consecutive month of gains, with quarterly growth exceeding 2 percent.
Energy and healthcare under pressure
Oil and gas majors retreated 0.8 percent in line with falling crude prices. Shares of TotalEnergies and BP each dropped by more than 1 percent. Healthcare stocks also lost ground, with the sector index down 0.3 percent. Denmark's Novo Nordisk and Britain's AstraZeneca both slipped by about 1 percent.
Mixed economic signals across Europe
Economic updates offered a mixed picture. The UK economy expanded 0.3 percent in the second quarter. In France, preliminary September inflation came in at 1.1 percent. Germany, however, reported an unexpected decline in retail sales in August.
ASOS shares plunge
One of the day's biggest movers was ASOS. The British online fashion retailer saw its stock sink 11.4 percent after warning that annual revenue will fall short of market expectations.
