Review of Trades and Trading Tips for the European Currency

Due to low market volatility, the price did not reach the levels I identified during the first half of the day.

Surprisingly, the euro did not react to today's ECB Financial Stability Review for May 2026, despite the report containing genuinely negative conclusions: risks to eurozone financial stability and an economic shock caused by the conflict in the Middle East. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, along with the resulting disruptions in energy supplies and rising inflationary pressures, have long been factors shaping Europe's economic landscape. However, over the past month, traders have become accustomed to the high level of uncertainty and have already adapted to the new realities.

Ahead, we have the release of the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index, as well as speeches by FOMC members Lorie K. Logan and Lisa D. Cook. Data from the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index, which reflects activity in the manufacturing sector of one of the key regions of the United States, will serve as an important indicator of the state of the U.S. economy. If the index shows stronger-than-expected growth, this could signal further strengthening of the U.S. dollar, as increased manufacturing activity often correlates with stronger economic growth prospects and, consequently, a higher likelihood of tighter monetary policy.

Speeches by FOMC members Lorie K. Logan and Lisa D. Cook will provide the market with valuable comments regarding the current and future direction of Federal Reserve policy. Investors will closely monitor any hints of interest rate hikes or the continuation of a hawkish stance.

As for the intraday strategy, I will rely primarily on the implementation of Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1

Today, buying the euro is possible upon reaching the price level of 1.1650 (green line on the chart), with a target at 1.1678. At 1.1678, I plan to exit the market and also sell the euro in the opposite direction, expecting a movement of 30–35 points from the entry level. The euro can be expected to rise today only after strong economic data.

Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and is only beginning to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2

I also plan to buy the euro today in the event of two consecutive tests of the 1.1633 price level while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. Growth toward the opposite levels of 1.1650 and 1.1678 can then be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1

I plan to sell the euro after the price reaches the 1.1633 level (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1601, where I plan to exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 20–25 points in the opposite direction from the level). Pressure on the pair will return today in the event of failed negotiations.

Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and is only beginning to decline from it.

Scenario No. 2

I also plan to sell the euro today in the event of two consecutive tests of the 1.1650 price level while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward market reversal. A decline toward the opposite levels of 1.1633 and 1.1601 can then be expected.

What Is Shown on the Chart

• Thin green line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought;
• Thick green line – the estimated price where Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be fixed manually, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold;
• Thick red line – the estimated price where Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be fixed manually, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator. When entering the market, it is important to follow overbought and oversold zones.

Important

Beginner Forex traders should make market entry decisions very carefully. Before the release of major fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market in order to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss orders, you can lose your entire deposit very quickly, especially if you do not use proper money management and trade large volumes.

And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.