07.07.202506:15 Forex Analysis & Reviews: USD/JPY Forecast for July 7, 2025

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USD/JPYFollowing a 126-point surge driven by strong U.S. labor market data, which pushed the quote above the balance indicator line, the pair closed below this line on Friday. Today began with a solid strengthening of the Japanese currency. This suggests that investors are once again focusing more on domestic policy factors. Japan is preparing retaliatory measures against the new 35% tariffs on Japanese goods announced by Trump, and the Bank of Japan may delay its next interest rate hike. For now, investors continue to view the yen as a safe-haven asset.A break below the target support level of 143.77 would open the path toward the 142.13–142.40 target range.

The signal line of the Marlin oscillator turned downward from the neutral zero line on Thursday. However, even a move toward the target range would not yet indicate a full trend reversal. For that, the price would need to fall below the MACD line at 141.40. This may explain why the price remains relatively free within a broad range of nearly six figures.

On the four-hour chart, the price has returned below the MACD line after briefly making a false breakout above it on July 3. The Marlin oscillator is visually set to enter negative territory even before the price tests the 143.77 support. This signals that the oscillator is providing leading confirmation, indicating a short-term downward trend.

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