The wave pattern on the 4-hour chart for EUR/USD has shifted to a bullish structure. I believe no one doubts that this transformation occurred solely due to the new U.S. trade policy. Until February 28, when the sharp decline in the U.S. dollar began, the entire wave structure looked like a convincing bearish trend. A corrective wave 2 was forming. However, weekly announcements by Trump about all sorts of tariffs did their job. Demand for the U.S. dollar began to drop rapidly, and now the entire trend segment, which began on January 13, has taken on an impulsive upward structure.

Moreover, the market didn't even manage to form a convincing wave 2 within the new bullish trend segment. We saw only a minor pullback, smaller in size than the corrective waves within wave 1. However, the U.S. dollar may continue to fall unless Donald Trump completely reverses the course of his adopted trade policy. We've already seen a case where the news backdrop changed the wave structure. It could happen again.

The EUR/USD pair declined by just 20 basis points on Tuesday, which has virtually no impact on the current wave picture. We saw an absolutely microscopic wave 2, then wave 1 within the assumed wave 3, and now wave 2 in wave 3 has begun forming. If that's correct, the euro's decline may continue toward the 1.1251 level, which corresponds to 323.6% on the Fibonacci scale.

I'd like to point out that today the market again ignored economic data. Yet Germany provided a flood of statistical information, but the market continues to look only toward the White House. Retail sales in Germany declined by 0.2% in March (vs. expectations of –0.4%), the unemployment rate remained at 6.3%, and GDP grew by 0.2% in the first quarter (as expected). Later, inflation data will be released, along with reports on U.S. economic growth and labor market conditions.

I should also mention that the European economy grew by 0.4% in Q1, but even this report brought no joy to euro buyers in the market. From the outside, it may seem that the price is mocking us, as the euro rises when there's no reason and falls when there is. But in reality, the pair's movement still depends solely on Donald Trump's will. This week, Trump made another goodwill gesture and slightly lowered tariffs on cars, while also announcing a trade agreement with India. As a result, all other news is irrelevant to the market.

General conclusions.

Based on the analysis of EUR/USD, I conclude that the pair continues to form a new bullish trend segment. In the near future, the wave structure will be entirely dependent on the position and actions of the U.S. president. This should be kept in mind at all times. Based solely on the wave pattern, I expected the formation of three correctional waves within wave 2. However, wave 2 has already ended and taken the form of a single wave. The formation of wave 3 in the bullish trend segment has begun, and its targets may extend all the way to the 1.25 level. Whether these targets are reached depends entirely on Trump. For now, we can expect a corrective wave — but once it ends, the upward movement should resume.

On the larger wave scale, it is evident that the wave pattern has turned bullish. A long-term upward sequence of waves is likely ahead, but Trump's personal news flow is capable of turning everything upside down again.

Core principles of my analysis:

1. Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex structures are hard to trade and often change.
2. If you're uncertain about what's happening in the market, it's better to stay out.
3. There can never be 100% certainty about market direction. Always use protective Stop Loss orders.
4. Wave analysis can be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.