What conclusions can we draw almost a day after the "ceasefire"? Firstly, there is, in fact, no ceasefire. Middle Eastern countries continue to attack each other's infrastructure, and Jerusalem seems to have been completely uninformed about the cessation of hostilities. Therefore, it is premature to discuss a ceasefire even for two weeks. It is possible that one will be reached in the coming days, but the fire has not been extinguished; it has simply been doused with a bottle of water.

Secondly, the Strait of Hormuz will now be much more complicated and costly for all vessels passing through it. Iran could block the Strait before, as military actions in the region are neither new nor rare. However, prior to the February military intervention, Tehran was reluctant to take this drastic measure. Now, Iran wants to charge a permanent fee for using the Strait of Hormuz. According to some reports, this fee could be $1 per barrel of oil passing through the strait (about $15-20 million per day). In other information, the fee is set at $2 million per tanker seeking to leave the Persian Gulf. In any case, the Strait of Hormuz will become toll-based, leading to rising oil prices.

Thirdly, the Strait of Hormuz is now a guarantor of Iran's security. Undoubtedly, this guarantee is quite weak, but any aggression against Iran will immediately result in the strait being blocked. This means that the energy shock experienced worldwide in February-March is far from the last.

Fourthly, the fate of Iran's enriched uranium remains uncertain. Trump can claim as much as he wants that he has achieved all the objectives in Iran, but he said last year that the three nuclear facilities under attack were completely destroyed and that Iran had lost its entire nuclear stockpile. As it turned out, in February of this year, not all has been lost. Thus, new attacks on Iran could occur for the same reasons in the future (and Donald Trump will be president of the U.S. for another three years).

Fifthly, it is Trump who has retreated, not Iran. Washington has accepted Iran's demands for a ceasefire and is willing to continue negotiations for a long-term peace agreement based on these terms. Therefore, Trump has realized that further war in the region could harm his political career to the extent that even the Republican Party would reject him. However, it is unlikely Trump will remain unemployed for long. According to him, Venezuela is practically begging him to become its next president.

Wave Picture for EUR/USD:

Based on the conducted analysis of EUR/USD, I conclude that the instrument remains within an upward segment of the trend (lower image), while in the short term, it is within a corrective structure. The corrective wave set appears quite complete and may take on a more complex, extended form only under one condition: if a sustainable ceasefire is established between Iran, the U.S., Israel, and all other countries in the Middle East. Otherwise, I believe that from the current positions, a new downward wave set could begin to form.

Wave Picture for GBP/USD:

The wave pattern for the GBP/USD instrument has become clearer over time, as I had anticipated. We now observe a clear five-wave downward structure on the charts with an extension in the third wave. If this is indeed the case, and geopolitics does not provoke a new collapse of the instrument soon, we can expect a formation of at least a three-wave corrective structure, within which the pound could rise to levels of 1.3429 and 1.3512, corresponding to 38.2% and 50.0% on the Fibonacci. However, geopolitics has already begun to deteriorate, and the three-wave correction for EUR/USD looks complete. Therefore, unless the situation clarifies soon, both instruments could begin forming a new downward wave set.

Key Principles of My Analysis:

1. Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex structures are difficult to trade and often involve changes.
2. If there is no confidence in what is happening in the market, it is better not to enter it.
3. There is never 100% certainty in the direction of movement. Always remember to use protective stop-loss orders.
4. Wave analysis can be combined with other forms of analysis and trading strategies.