On Thursday, the EUR/USD pair consolidated above the 61.8% retracement level at 1.1594 and rose toward the resistance level of 1.1645–1.1656, as forecast. A rebound from this zone on Friday will favor the US dollar and a slight decline toward 1.1594. A consolidation above this zone will increase the likelihood of continued growth toward the next 38.2% corrective level at 1.1718.

The wave structure on the hourly chart remains simple and clear. The new upward wave has not yet broken the peak of the previous wave, while the last downward wave broke the previous low. Thus, the trend remains bearish at this time. Bullish traders have launched an offensive, but they need to maintain momentum for the bullish trend to resume. For the bearish trend to be considered complete, the pair needs to rise above 1.1656 or form two consecutive bullish waves.

On Thursday, the news background was rather limited, but Donald Trump and the US Congress came to the rescue, which, on the fifteenth attempt, finally approved a funding bill. It approved funding not for an entire year, as many traders expected, but only for 2.5 months. During these 2.5 months, negotiations between Democrats and Republicans will continue, and if they fail, then early next year the work of the government and public services may again be paralyzed. Republicans did not meet the Democrats' demands regarding the preservation of healthcare funding, so Democrats have a real opportunity to trigger another government shutdown—the third under Donald Trump. However, for the dollar this is still some degree of relief. But it did not bring the dollar any real benefit. Bears have extracted everything possible and impossible from the news background over the last 5–6 weeks. Now they have no energy left for further attacks. As early as today, the bearish trend may transform into a bullish one.

On the 4-hour chart, the pair reversed in favor of the euro after a bullish divergence formed on the CCI indicator and rose toward the 23.6% Fibonacci level at 1.1649. A rebound from this level will favor the US dollar and a slight decline toward 1.1538. A consolidation above the resistance level of 1.1649–1.1680 will allow the bulls to continue their advance toward the 0.0% corrective level at 1.1829. No emerging divergences are visible today on any indicator.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

During the most recent reporting week, professional traders closed 789 long positions and opened 2,625 short positions. No new COT reports have been issued for more than a month. The sentiment of the "Non-commercial" group remains bullish thanks to Donald Trump and continues to strengthen over time. The total number of long positions held by speculators is now 252,000, while short positions total 138,000—almost a twofold difference. In addition, note the number of green cells in the table above. They indicate strong growth in euro positions. In most cases, interest in the euro is rising while interest in the dollar is declining.

For thirty-three consecutive weeks, large players have been reducing short positions and increasing long ones. Donald Trump's policies remain the most influential factor for traders, as they can lead to numerous long-term structural problems for America. Despite the signing of several important trade agreements, many key economic indicators continue to decline.

News calendar for the USA and the European Union:

European Union – GDP volume change in the third quarter (10:00 UTC).

On November 14, the economic calendar contains one entry. The influence of the news background on market sentiment on Friday will be extremely weak and only in the morning.

EUR/USD forecast and trading recommendations:

Selling the pair is possible today upon a rebound from the 1.1645–1.1656 level on the hourly chart, targeting 1.1594. Buying could be considered after consolidation above 1.1517 and after closing above 1.1594 with a target at 1.1645–1.1656. This target has been met. New buying opportunities will arise upon a close above 1.1656, targeting 1.1718.

The Fibonacci grids are built from 1.1392–1.1919 on the hourly chart and from 1.1066–1.1829 on the 4-hour chart.