The GBP/USD currency pair also traded very calmly on Monday. While in the Eurozone, there was at least a speech by Christine Lagarde; in the UK and the US, however, there was not a single remotely interesting event throughout the day. But there is good news—this won't last for long.

The chart below clearly shows that in recent weeks, the pair's volatility is rather "average." There is no pronounced flat, but the price still trades mainly in the same range, maintaining excellent prospects for further upward movement. We're already a bit tired of repeating in every article that the dollar still has no chance for growth, and with every day, it only gains more reasons for further decline.

Recall that last week, Donald Trump raised tariffs for India as a means of pressuring Russia. And this week, Trump has already demanded that the European Union also impose tariffs on goods from India to increase pressure on Russia. Pressure on Moscow is needed by the US President so that a ceasefire agreement between Ukraine and Russia is signed as soon as possible. And Trump needs the Ukraine-Russia ceasefire not out of peaceful intentions, but to win the Nobel Peace Prize in October. That's the objective reality in 2025.

Also, last week, Donald Trump tried to fire Federal Reserve monetary policy committee member Lisa Cook, and this week, another FOMC representative, Mary Daly, made a sharp turn to a dovish stance. As we suspected, the pressure on Jerome Powell and Lisa Cook had more meaning than many thought. Trump showed the entire FOMC committee that any hawks will be thoroughly scrutinized. Therefore, if anyone has any "skeletons in the closet," it's best to start voting for rate cuts as soon as possible, lest they be publicly exposed.

Now at least four FOMC members are ready to vote as Donald Trump wants. Next year, they are guaranteed to be five, since Jerome Powell will leave his post. By May next year, Trump only needs to fire or force one more official to change their opinion—and that's it.

Thus, it is now quite possible—even before the end of the year—that we'll see a scenario with a sharp cut in the Fed's key rate. Recall that Trump wants not just monetary easing, but urgent and significant monetary easing. Trump needs record growth rates in the US economy. Maybe, just maybe, he also wants to get into the Guinness World Records. Either way, the dollar remains in a position that you wouldn't wish even on your worst enemy. Nevertheless, our job is only to analyze the situation and draw conclusions. America's problems are America's problems. They elected Trump as president themselves.

The average volatility of the GBP/USD pair over the last five trading days is 60 pips. For the pound/dollar pair, this is considered "medium-low." On Tuesday, September 2, we therefore expect movement within a range defined by levels 1.3481 and 1.3601. The upper channel of linear regression is pointed upwards, indicating an unambiguous uptrend. The CCI indicator twice entered the oversold zone, signaling a resumption of the upward trend. Several new bullish divergences were also formed before the start of a new growth wave.

Nearest Support Levels:

S1 – 1.3489

S2 – 1.3428

S3 – 1.3367

Nearest Resistance Levels:

R1 – 1.3550

R2 – 1.3611

R3 – 1.3672

Trading Recommendations:

The GBP/USD currency pair has completed another round of downward correction. In the medium term, Trump's policies are likely to continue putting pressure on the dollar. Thus, long positions with targets at 1.3611 and 1.3672 remain much more relevant if the price is above the moving average. If the price is below the moving average line, small shorts can be considered, but only on purely technical grounds. From time to time, the US currency shows corrections, but for a trend-based strengthening, it needs real evidence of the end of the global trade war or some other global, positive factors.

Chart Elements Explained:

• Linear regression channels help determine the current trend. If both channels point in the same direction, the trend is strong.
• The moving average line (settings 20,0, smoothed) indicates the short-term trend and trade direction.
• Murray levels serve as target levels for moves and corrections.
• Volatility levels (red lines) are the likely price channel for the next day, based on current volatility readings.
• The CCI indicator: dips below -250 (oversold) or rises above +250 (overbought) mean a trend reversal may be near.