The EUR/USD currency pair showed a relatively strong upward movement on Wednesday evening and Thursday. Readers familiar with our crypto market articles will recognize the concept of "liquidity sweep." This refers to market maker manipulation aimed at "taking out" other traders' Stop Losses, which serve as a source of liquidity. On Wednesday, we saw exactly such a sweep. There was absolutely no reason for the US dollar to strengthen—neither on Wednesday nor throughout the week. Quite the contrary, in fact. Donald Trump raised tariffs on India to 50%, and what is that if not an escalation of the trade war? Donald Trump continues to pressure the Fed and appears to be looking to dismiss the current FOMC members outright, who are resisting and unwilling to cut rates. Moreover, Trump isn't at all bothered by his lack of authority to fire those officials. All these are factors that should—and indeed did in the first six months of the year—put pressure on the dollar.

Thus, just as before, we believe the dollar will only continue to weaken. There is not a single sign or factor that supports the USD's strength in the near future. We've seen a technical correction, but the fundamental backdrop that ensured the dollar's collapse in the first half of the year remains unchanged. On what basis, then, can we expect the dollar to grow?

In addition to Donald Trump, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is now also pressuring the Federal Reserve. However, Bessent's demands are more modest—he wants the rate cut by "just" 1.5–2%. No one seems to question what authority the Treasury Secretary has to instruct the Fed Chair on their actions. We can somewhat understand such demands from the president, who, after all, is responsible for everything in the state. But why is the Treasury Secretary getting involved? The answer is simple: the US now has unipolar power. What does that mean? It means "one for all and all for Trump." If an official belongs to the Republican Party, they automatically support the party's—more precisely, Trump's—policies.

So it's no surprise that Scott Bessent is now also demanding rate cuts and a probe into Lisa Cook, who was allegedly involved in document forgery to obtain a mortgage benefit in 2021. It's odd, but we always thought that the Treasury Secretary should focus on—attention!—finances, not uncovering violations among officials from a completely different department. However, it seems Trump has grown tired of carrying the load alone. From the outside, it may seem that Trump is the sole source of all the problems, disputes, and conflicts. But now the US president can always point to Bessent and say, "The Treasury Secretary wants the same thing from the Fed."

All in all, this entire "Divine Comedy" only threatens the US dollar with one outcome—a new decline. The US economy may grow with these methods of governance, but that might be the only indicator showing positive dynamics. Since we are primarily interested in the dollar's value, not the welfare of ordinary Americans, the conclusion is straightforward and obvious.

The average volatility of the EUR/USD currency pair over the last five trading days as of August 29 is 76 pips, which is characterized as "average." We expect the pair to move between 1.1603 and 1.1755 on Friday. The linear regression channel's upper band is pointing up, which still signals an uptrend. The CCI indicator entered oversold territory three times, suggesting a potential resumption of the upward trend.

Nearest Support Levels:

S1 – 1.1658

S2 – 1.1597

S3 – 1.1536

Nearest Resistance Levels:

R1 – 1.1719

R2 – 1.1780

R3 – 1.1841

Trading Recommendations:

The EUR/USD pair may resume its upward trend. The US currency remains under intense pressure from Donald Trump's policies, as he shows no intention to "stop where he is." The dollar appreciated for as long as it could, but now it seems the time has come for a new extended round of decline. If the price is below the moving average, short positions with targets at 1.1603 and 1.1597 can be considered. Above the moving average, long positions with targets at 1.1719 and 1.1755 remain relevant as the trend continues.

Chart Elements Explained:

• Linear regression channels help determine the current trend. If both channels point in the same direction, the trend is strong.
• The moving average line (settings 20,0, smoothed) indicates the short-term trend and trade direction.
• Murray levels serve as target levels for moves and corrections.
• Volatility levels (red lines) are the likely price channel for the next day, based on current volatility readings.
• The CCI indicator: dips below -250 (oversold) or rises above +250 (overbought) mean a trend reversal may be near.