Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the Japanese Yen

The test of the 147.74 price level coincided with the MACD indicator just starting to move down from the zero line, which confirmed the correct entry point for selling the dollar. However, after a 10-point move down, demand for the dollar returned. As a result, following the rise and test of 148.01, which coincided with the MACD starting to move up from the zero line, long positions on the dollar could and should have been opened. This ultimately led to the pair moving up by more than 30 points.

Strong US PMI reports put pressure on the Japanese yen, continuing the upward trend in USD/JPY. The manufacturing PMI, contrary to expectations, rose above 50 points, signaling expansion rather than contraction. The impact of these data on the yen was significant. The yen, traditionally considered a safe-haven currency, came under pressure as fears of an economic downturn in the US eased. The ongoing upward trend in USD/JPY reflects not only the current economic situation but also expectations regarding future US Federal Reserve policy. Strong economic data gives the Fed more room to maintain a tight monetary policy, which in turn will support the dollar.

For intraday strategy, I will focus primarily on Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Scenario

Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today upon reaching the entry point around 148.80 (green line on the chart) with the target of rising to 149.19 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 149.19, I intend to exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction, expecting a move of 30–35 points downward from that level. It is best to return to buying the pair during corrections and significant pullbacks in USD/JPY. Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just beginning its upward move.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in case of two consecutive tests of the 148.52 price level when the MACD indicator is in oversold territory. This would limit the pair's downside potential and trigger a reversal upward. Growth can then be expected toward the opposite levels of 148.80 and 149.19.

Sell Scenario

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after a breakout below 148.52 (red line on the chart), which would likely trigger a quick decline. The key target for sellers will be 148.13, where I intend to exit short positions and immediately open long positions in the opposite direction, expecting a move of 20–25 points upward from that level. Selling is best done at the highest possible levels. Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and is just beginning its downward move.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in case of two consecutive tests of the 148.80 price level when the MACD indicator is in overbought territory. This would limit the pair's upside potential and trigger a reversal downward. A decline can then be expected toward the opposite levels of 148.52 and 148.13.

What's on the Chart:

• The thin green line represents the entry price where the trading instrument can be bought.
• The thick green line indicates the expected price level where a Take Profit order can be placed, or profits can be manually secured, as further price growth above this level is unlikely.
• The thin red line represents the entry price where the trading instrument can be sold.
• The thick red line indicates the expected price level where a Take Profit order can be placed, or profits can be manually secured, as further price decline below this level is unlikely.
• The MACD indicator should be used to assess overbought and oversold zones when entering the market.

Important Notes:

• Beginner Forex traders should exercise extreme caution when making market entry decisions. It is advisable to stay out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid exposure to sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses. Trading without stop-loss orders can quickly wipe out your entire deposit, especially if you neglect money management principles and trade with high volumes.
• Remember, successful trading requires a well-defined trading plan, similar to the one outlined above. Making impulsive trading decisions based on the current market situation is a losing strategy for intraday traders.