Oil prices have fallen for the fourth consecutive day, marking the longest losing streak of the year. Brent has dropped below $83 per barrel, and WTI has approached $80, failing to maintain levels above $81 yesterday. This indicates that prices have returned to the lows of early March, erasing a significant portion of the gains accumulated during the conflict. Against this backdrop, Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs have lowered their forecasts for the upcoming quarters.

Goldman Sachs now expects that exports from the Persian Gulf will reach pre-war levels by the end of July—a month earlier than the previous forecast. Morgan Stanley has cut its Brent forecast for the third quarter from $100 to $90 and for the fourth quarter by $15 to $80. According to their estimates, production will recover to 50% by September and 80% by December.

However, the market remains cautious—and with good reason. The text of the memorandum has yet to be published. Shipping companies and traders state that they require greater clarity before sending vessels through the strait: security issues, operational rules, and the actual cost of passage remain unresolved. Other companies are even more skeptical. Estimates suggest it will take several months for traffic to return to pre-war levels.

While the bullish signal for oil still exists, its intensity has noticeably decreased. Meanwhile, US strategic oil reserves have dropped to the lowest level since 1983. Recent supply shortages have been real, and replenishing them will take time.

For the Federal Reserve, the decline in oil prices comes at an ideal moment—right ahead of the first meeting chaired by Kevin Warsh on Wednesday. If oil holds at current levels, inflationary pressure will begin to decline faster than forecasts, giving the new chairman room for a softer rhetoric.

As for the current technical picture of oil, buyers need to reclaim the nearest resistance at $81.40. This will allow targeting $86.67, above which it will be quite challenging to break through. The furthest target will be around $92.54. In the event of a price drop, bears will attempt to take control at $74.85. If they succeed, breaking this range will deliver a significant blow to bullish positions and push oil down to a low of $67.77, with the prospect of falling to $59.90.