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08.07.2025 05:50 AM
2025年7月8日澳元/美元預測

AUD/USD在美國美元(USDX +0.56%)的支持下,澳元成為當天最大的下跌貨幣(-0.69%,-61點),因市場等待今天預期的澳洲央行從3.85%降息至3.60%。這一降息的概率被計入達90%。然而,儘管如此,加上將近一個月的橫向波動,降息並未完全反映在澳元的價格中,因為澳元的壓力主要來自大宗商品市場。

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在日線圖中,價格已經跌破了平衡線和MACD指標線,而Marlin振盪指標也進入了負值區域,這強化了價格向下的趨勢。然而,考慮到降息的高概率,我們不預期價格會急劇下跌。我們假設價格會在0.6394–0.6446的區間內盤整,這在四月和五月是個舒適的區域。若價格堅定地跌破0.6394,可能會打開通往三月份130點區間的道路,下限位於0.6262。

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在四小時圖上,價格保持在指標線下方,同時Marlin振盪指標略微向上修正,現在又準備再次向下,這表明價格將繼續在負值區域運行。

Laurie Bailey,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
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