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09.04.202607:21:24UTC+00US PCE Prices Seen Rising, Core Monthly Inflation Steady

The US PCE price index is forecast to rise by 0.4% month over month in February 2026, a touch faster than January’s 0.3% gain. The core PCE index, which excludes volatile food and energy components, is likewise expected to increase by 0.4%, matching its pace in the prior month.

On an annual basis, headline PCE inflation is projected to hold steady at 2.8%, while the core measure is seen edging down to 3.0% from 3.1%. Taken together, the figures are expected to show that price pressures remained elevated and broadly consistent with recent trends, still running above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target in February, just before the outbreak of the war with Iran.

The PCE price index is the Federal Reserve’s preferred gauge of inflation.

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